CSF vs. UCSB Men's Basketball Game Preview, by Gaucho Dan

Cal State Fullerton at UCSB
Thursday, March 5, 2020, 7 pm PST, BigWest.tv
 
Quick Bite
It's the penultimate game of the schedule, and the Gauchos have a glide path into the Big West Tournament with home games vs. 5-9 Cal State Fullerton and 4-10 Cal Poly. Even without the services of the great Max Heidegger, UCSB should be able to post two victories. Combine that with at least one probable CSUN loss (the Matadors visit Irvine Wednesday night and host Hawai'i Saturday) and the Gauchos be the #2 seed in the BWT. Fullerton has a lot to play for. Its seeding is complicated by its 1-1 splits with Riverside and Cal Poly and its Saturday finale vs. Long Beach. The Titans can still miss the BWT.

By the Numbers

	Cal State Fullerton	UC Santa Barbara
Record	10-19	19-10
Away/Home/Neutral (D1)	4-10 (A)	9-3 (H)
Big West Conference	5-9	8-6
Record vs. Quadrant	vs. Q3: 1-8	vs. Q4: 13-3
Composite (NET, kpi, sor, bpi, pom, sag)	280	162
DCI	302	151
DC2	296	152
RPI	300	170
NET	269	169
SOS (NET)	264	291
KPom Offensive Efficiency	277	79
KPom Defensive Efficiency	250	247
KPom Tempo	122	333
Points per game (overall/BWC)	68.9 (245th) / 74.3 (3rd)	71.4 (169th) / 68.2 (6th)
FG% (overall/BWC)	43.4% (201st) / 44.3% (5th)	46.3% (45th) / 45.0% (4th)
2-pt FG% (overall/BWC)	48.4% (243rd) / 48.9% (5th)	52.7% (73rd) / 50.2% (2nd)
3-pt FG% (overall/BWC)	33.4% (179th) / 34.6% (7th)	34.4% (122nd) / 35.5% (5th)
FT% (overall/BWC)	67.8% (277th) / 67.7% (9th)	75.6% (32nd) / 75.8% (2nd)
Points allowed per game (overall/BWC)	72.0 (256th) / 78.4 (9th)	66.7 (106th) / 65.6 (3rd)
FG% allowed (overall/BWC)	44.4% (254th) / 45.9% (8th)	45.0% (284th) / 45.8% (6th)
2-pt FG% allowed (overall/BWC)	49.5% (205th) / 49.7% (6th)	50.3% (239th) / 51.4% (8th)
3-pt FG% allowed (overall/BWC)	33.6% (220th) / 37.7% (7th)	35.3% (295th) / 34.6% (3rd)
Off. rebounds per game (overall/BWC)	8.0 (309th) / 9.1 (3rd)	10.1 (182nd) / 8.9 (4th)
Def. rebounds allowed per game (overall/BWC)	27.2 (259th) / 26.9 (8th)	21.6 (9th) / 22.1 (1st)
Off. rebounds allowed per game (overall/BWC)	9.0 (82nd) / 9.3 (6th)	8.0 (27th) / 8.1 (3rd)
Def. rebounds per game (overall/BWC)	25.7 (213th) / 25.1 (6th)	23.8 (308th) / 22.2 (9th)
Rebounds per game (overall/BWC)	33.7 (279th) / 34.1 (3rd)	33.9 (272nd) / 31.1 (8th)
Rebounds allowed per game (overall/BWC)	36.2 (204th) / 36.1 (7th)	29.6 (6th) / 30.1 (1st)
Assists per game (overall/BWC)	12.2 (132nd) / 12.9 (5th)	11.5 (77th) / 11.5 (3rd)
Steals per game (overall/BWC)	6.2 (133rd) / 6.1 (7th)	4.4 (6th) / 3.9 (1st)
Blocks per game (overall/BWC)	3.1 (160th) / 3.8 (9th)	2.3 (18th) / 2.2 (2nd)
Best wins (NET, Quadrant)	@ UCLA (75, Q1) @ UC Davis (212, Q3)	@ UT Arlington (127, Q2) UC Irvine (107, Q3) @ UC Riverside (208, Q3) @ Louisiana (234, Q3)
Worst losses (NET, Quadrant)	vs Denver (327, Q4) @ Cal Poly (324, Q4) San Diego (223, Q4)	Long Beach St (294, Q4) CSUN (239, Q4) Rice (216, Q4)
Trend	lost 3 in a row	lost 1, won 3 of last 4

UCSB - Cal State Fullerton History
UCSB and Cal State Fullerton have played 90 times in a series that began during the 1975-76 season. The Gauchos hold an all-time advantage of 48-41. The Titans won two out of three games between the two schools in 2018-19, with Fullerton eliminating UCSB in last year's BWT semifinals. On Feb. 20, UCSB defeated Fullerton 75-66.

Head Coach
In his seventh season at Cal State Fullerton, Dedrique Taylor has an overall record of 94-127. In 2018-19, the Titans made it to the Big West Tournament Final for the second straight year, the first time that has been accomplished in program history, but were unable to secure the trophy and return to the NCAA Tournament. Fullerton did earn its third consecutive postseason berth, also a program first, as it hosted CSU Bakersfield in the first round of the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament. The Titans went 16-18 on the year and 10-6 in Big West Conference action to take third place in the standings.

Taylor led the 2017-18 squad to a Big West Tournament Championship and a trip to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2007-08 and only the third time in program history. The year prior, he led the 2016-17 team to the postseason for the first time in program history since the 2011-12 season. The Titans hosted Weber State in the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament, also marking the first time in school history that the team hosted a postseason game.

Taylor played two seasons for Bob Williams at UC Davis, and was an assistant at the school after Williams' departure for UCSB. Taylor was also an assistant at Nevada, Portland State, Loyola Marymount and Arizona State, where he crossed paths with James Harden.

Roster
Probable Starters

• Brandon Kamga (1) SR, G, 6-5, 215 Reston, VA, South Lakes HS, 15.3 Pts, 4.4 Reb, 1.3 Ast -- Last 3 games: 36.7 Min, 16.7 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 1.0 Ast. Last game vs. UCSB: 20 points (9-18 FG, 1-4 three, 1-1 FT), 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block and 1 turnover in 40 minutes. Shooting percentages: .492 from two, .331 from three (5.0 attempts per game) and .809 from FT. 
• Austen Awosika (10) SR, G, 6-3, 193, Carson, CA, Ayala HS (Chino Hills), 13.0 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 4.1 Ast -- Last 3 games: 35.7 Min, 8.7 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 1.0 Ast. Last game vs. UCSB: 4 points (2-4 FG), 2 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover in 29 minutes. Shooting percentages: .480 from two, .192 from three (1.8 attempts per game) and .569 from FT. 
• Jackson Rowe (34) SR, F, 6-7, 210, Toronto, Canada, Wasatch Academy (Mount Pleasant, UT), 15.7 Pts, 7.6 Reb, 1.7 Ast -- Last 3 games: 27.7 Min, 16.3 Pts, 7.0 Reb, 0.7 Ast. Last game vs. UCSB: 18 points (7-14 FG, 3-6 three, 1-3 FT), 7 rebounds, 1 assist and 3 turnovers in 30 minutes. Shooting percentages: .504 from two, .411 from three (4.1 attempts per game) and .688 from FT. 
• Davon Clare (5) SR, F, 6-5, 220, Killeen, TX, Harker Heights HS, 8.7 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 2.1 Ast -- Last 3 games: 30.3 Min, 8.0 Pts, 6.7 Reb, 1.7 Ast. Last game vs. UCSB: 9 points (3-8 FG, 0-1 three, 3-4 FT), 5 rebounds, 1 assist and 1 turnover in 31 minutes. Shooting percentages: .521 from two, .338 from three (2.2 attempts per game) and .750 from FT. 
• Johnny Wang (33) JR, F, 6-9, 245, Beijing, China, Santa Margarita Catholic HS, 3.7 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.2 Ast -- Last 3 games: 19.0 Min, 11.0 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 0.3 Ast. Last game vs. UCSB: 2 points (1-3 FG) and 2 rebounds in 11 minutes. Shooting percentages: .548 from two, .333 from three (0.2 attempts per game) and .792 from FT.
 

Key Reserves

• Wayne Arnold (11) SO, G, 6-4, 170, Los Angeles, CA, Dominguez HS, 9.0 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 0.6 Ast -- Last 3 games: 27.7 Min, 7.3 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 0.0 Ast. Last game vs. UCSB: 11 points (5-10 FG, 4-7 three, 1-3 FT), 4 rebounds, 1 block and 2 turnovers in 31 minutes. Shooting percentages: .371 from two, .346 from three (5.3 attempts per game) and .939 from FT.
• Tory San Antonio (23) FR, G, 6-3, 165, Moreno Valley, CA, Rancho Verde HS, 3.0 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 0.9 Ast -- Last 3 games: 19.3 Min, 4.3 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 2.0 Ast. Last game vs. UCSB: 0 points (0-1 FG), 1 rebound, 3 assists and 2 blocks in 14 minutes. Shooting percentages: .364 from two, .300 from three (1.3 attempts per game) and .704 from FT.
• Daniel Venzant (2) SO, G, 5-10, 163, Midland, TX, Midland Christian HS, 2.8 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 1.0 Ast -- Last 3 games: 8.3 Min, 3.7 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 1.0 Ast. Last game vs. UCSB: DNP. Shooting percentages: .500 from two, .500 from three (0.6 attempts per game) and .625 from FT. 
• Josh Pitts (24) JR, F, 6-9, 248, San Antonio, TX, Memorial HS, 1.8 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.2 Ast -- Last 3 games: 3.3 Min, 0.0 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 0.0 Ast. Last game vs. UCSB: 0 points (0-2 FG) and 1 turnover in 4 minutes. Shooting percentages: .410 from two and .400 from FT.
• Vincent Lee (13) FR, F, 6-9, 215, Midlothian, TX, Heritage HS, 5.1 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast -- Last 3 games: 8.3 Min, 0.7 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.0 Ast. Last game vs. UCSB: 2 points (1-2 FG), 3 rebounds and 1 turnover in 10 minutes. Shooting percentages: .548 from two and .556 from FT.

Match-up overview:
There has been some turnover in how Taylor is using his players. Lee, once a starter, is gathering splinters in his backside. Wang is averaging 15.5 points in his last two games. Kamga and Awosika are not getting subbed out very often.

Rowe, Kamga and Awosika are the scorers, with Arnold adding another option when he's in the game. Arnold, Kamga, Rowe and Clare are the main 3-point shooters. If you're looking for people to foul, that would be Awosika and Lee.

The Titans have lost three straight overall and their last four road games. Fullerton remains a matchup problem as they, more than any other team in the conference, pin their ears back and drive it to the basket.

UCSB couldn't find a scorer for about 24 minutes at UC Irvine. Then Robinson Idehen happened. The Gauchos scrambled back from a 20-point deficit to cut the lead to single digits in the waning moments. It was a good way to finish, but UCSB will need to find some scoring options when confronted with elite defenses.

Probable Starters

• Amadou Sow (12) SO, F, 6-9, 235, Bamako, Mali, Prolific Prep Academy, 14.0 Pts, 7.0 Reb, 0.8 Ast -- Last 3 games: 26.7 Min, 8.7 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 0.7 Ast. Last game at CSUF: 8 points (4-8 FG, 0-1 three, 0-1 FT), 5 rebounds, 5 blocks and 1 turnover in 32 minutes. Shooting percentages: .579 from two, .390 from three (1.4 attempts per game) and .755 from FT.
• Jaquori McLaughlin (3) JR, G, 6-4, 190, Tacoma, WA, Peninsula HS, 13.5 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 3.9 Ast -- Last 3 games: 36.7 Min, 13.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 5.7 Ast. Last game at CSUF: 11 points (4-13 FG, 0-3 three, 3-4 FT), 2 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover in 34 minutes. Shooting percentages: .469 from two, .408 from three (3.5 attempts per game) and .802 from FT.
• Matt Freeman (2) SR, F, 6-10, 220, Auckland, New Zealand, Westlake Boys HS, 9.5 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 1.9 Ast -- Last 3 games: 25.3 Min, 6.3 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.7 Ast. Last game at CSUF: 11 points (5-8 FG, 1-2 three), 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 turnover in 24 minutes. Shooting percentages: .476 from two, .381 from three (4.1 attempts per game) and .875 from FT.
• Devearl Ramsey (4) JR, G, 6-0, 185, Los Angeles, CA, Sierra Canyon HS, 8.2 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 2.5 Ast -- Last 3 games: 34.3 Min, 11.3 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 1.7 Ast. Last game at CSUF: 9 points (1-5 FG, 1-3 three, 6-6 FT), 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals and 1 turnover in 34 minutes. Shooting percentages: .438 from two, .321 from three (3.0 attempts per game) and .877 from FT.
• Brandon Cyrus (11) SR, G, 6-5, 190, Oakville, Canada, La Lumiere School, 5.9 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 1.4 Ast -- Last 3 games: 29.0 Min, 6.3 Pts, 7.3 Reb, 2.0 Ast. Last game at CSUF: 6 points (3-5 FG, 0-1 three), 3 rebounds and 1 turnover in 20 minutes. Shooting percentages: .481 from two, .192 from three (1.9 attempts per game) and .641 from FT.

Key Reserves

• Robinson Idehen (35) JR, F, 6-10, 230, Tudela, Spain, Modesto Christian HS, 5.8 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 0.4 Ast -- Last 3 games: 17.3 Min, 11.3 Pts, 6.7 Reb, 0.3 Ast. Last game at CSUF: 0 points (0-1 FG), 1 rebound and 1 block in 10 minutes. Shooting percentages: .691 from two, .000 from three (0.0 attempts per game) and .522 from FT.
• Sekou Toure (0) SO, G, 6-5, 185, Conarky, Guinea, Prolific Prep Academy, 3.1 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.5 Ast -- Last 3 games: 8.0 Min, 1.0 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.7 Ast. Last game at CSUF: 0 points and 1 assist in 3 minutes. Shooting percentages: .516 from two, .143 from three (0.5 attempts per game) and .750 from FT.
• Jay Nagle (5) SO, F, 6-8, 215, Vacavile, CA, Will C. Wood HS 2.1 Pts, 1.1 Reb, 0.6 Ast -- Last 3 games: 7.0 Min, 0.7 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 0.3 Ast. Last game at CSUF: 3 points (1-1 FG, 1-1 three)and 1 assist in 10 minutes. Shooting percentages: .429 from two, .350 from three (1.4 attempts per game) and .857 from FT.

Injured

• Max Heidegger (21) SR, G, 6-3, 180, Malibu, CA, Crespi Carmelite HS, 16.0 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 3.2 Ast -- Last 3 games: 27.7 Min, 14.7 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 3.3 Ast. Last game at CSUF: 27 points (1-2 FG), 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals in 36 minutes. Shooting percentages: .536 from two, .360 from three (4.9 attempts per game) and .784 from FT.

Keys to the game for the Gauchos 

• Stop penetration. The Titans run downhill at you. UCSB must stop straight-line drives to the basket.
• Control Rowe. He's an excellent rebounder for his size. 
• Overcome Fullerton's experience. The Titans start four seniors, and Awosika and Rowe have gone to three straight post-seasons and two BWT finals.
• Sow breaks out of his slump. Amadou is averaging 8.8 ppg in the last 5.
• McLaughlin assumes command. J-Roq had just 9 points on 2-of-9 shooting at Irvine. He did dish out 6 assists.
• Tinker with the rotation. The Gauchos are down to 8 players. Idehen and Toure have proved, in my opinion, that they deserve more playing time. Nagle probably plays more only if Sow, Freeman or Idehen get in foul trouble.

Prediction
DC2 trends: UCSB's 5-game trend dips to 54.06 (last 10 = 53.32, season-long 52.41). Fullerton is at a lowly 31.30 over its last 5 (last 10 = 38.29, season-long = 37.90). This is an important game for both teams for seeding purposes. My prediction? I feel we will play better vs. a team with limited size. We roll to a 75-59 victory.

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