Monday, January 7, 2019

Cal Poly vs. UCSB Game Preview, by Gaucho Freg

UCSB vs. Cal Poly Preview
Wednesday, January 9, 2019, 7 PM PST
UCSB is on a three game winning streak which includes a hard fought victory over their toughest opponent on their schedule in the USF Dons and a 62 point laugher over one of the worst basketball programs in the country in the NCCAA Bethesda Flames.  Cal Poly is the lowest ranked team in the Big West but is also coming off an easy victory over a lower division opponent in Holy Names.  Prior to that they had lost four straight to D1 opponents.

By the Numbers                                                              
Cal_Poly_Mustangs, small.jpg
UCSB logo small.png
Record (D1 only) 2-9 9-3
Home/Away vs D1 0-7 (A) 5-0 (H)
Composite National Rankings
DCI 1&2, BPI, SOR, KP, Massey, NET, RPI, Sagarin 322 128
NET 321 139
SOS (ESPN BPI) 291 335
CBS Preseason Rank 302 288
SI Preseason Rank 299 185
Preseason Poll Pick 8th 4th
Efficiency Rankings (Pomeroy) 
Offense 316 91
Defense 283 210
Scoring 66.4 77.8
FG% 42.3 48.1
3Pt % 34.2 34.6
FT% 67.0 71.2
PPG Allowed 71.8 65.2
FG % Defense 43.4 39.1
3Pt % Defense 36.5 28.1
Rebounding Margin -2.3 +9.8
Mustangs overview:
The Mustangs are the bottom of the barrel Big West squad coming out of pre-league play.  Their two D1 victories both came in OT against +300 squads, one in a neutral site, the other at home with a combined margin of 3 points.  Statistically, they rank very low in offense and defense efficiencies and their combined computer rankings put them at 322. They have a good playmaker in Fields but his shooting has suffered as the opposing teams are keying in on him.  Wing Mark Crowe is an outstanding shooter and the Gaucho guards will have to play him tight.  Mustang frontcourt players have not put up much in terms of numbers and they are being out rebounded by 2.3 per game.
Best win (NET):  vs. Bethune Cookman (311)
Worst Loss (NET):  @ Portland (285)

View from a Poly FanPending (ccman)

CP-UCSB History
This will be the 114th meeting between the schools, making the Mustangs the second most played school for UCSB, Long Beach the first with 126 contests.  UCSB holds a 79-35 advantage over its central coast rival.  The Gauchos have won two in a row including a 75-53 victory in the first round of the BWT in March.
Head Coach:  Joe Callero is in his 10th and, probably, his last season at the helm of the Mustangs, sporting a record of 123-170.  His earlier teams had a reputation for a stingy defense and a slow-down style of play but the last couple seasons have not been the case.  He has had only two winning seasons with the Mustangs, the last coming in 2012-13.  This season is shaping up to be the worst in his tenure with even a 7th place BWT seed, where the Mustangs have finished about 5 years in a row, looking to be out of reach.

The Mustangs start three upperclassman and two underclassmen. Their bench has only one player with significant D1 experience.
Probable Starters
PG Donovan Fields   #3  5’10”, 160 lb, Senior  15.8 ppg, 4 apg, 27-33 FT, 33 mpg.  Poly’s unquestionable team leader.  Tops in scoring, FT attempts & assists.  His fg% has suffered from his junior year, hitting only .268 from three and .398 overall.  He absolutely destroyed UCSB in the first game last year, penetrating the Gaucho defense at will, leading Poly to a surprising upset.
Guard Marcellus Garrick  #11  6’4”, 190 lb. 10.2 ppg, 27 mpg  Senior  Second on team in assists and getting to the line.  Shooting just .328 from the field.
Wing Mark Crowe   #5  6’5”, 205lb RS Sophomore  11.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg.  Outstanding shooter, hitting .550 overall and an impressive .516 from deep on 60 attempts.  Leads team in minutes played with 35 pg.
Forward Daxton Carr  #13  6’7”, 200 lb, Freshman 4.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg  21 mpg. Shooting .395 from the field and .353 from deep on 34 attempts.  This would be his 8th start after coming off the bench at the start of the season. 
Forward Hank Hollingsworth  #30  6’10”, 235 lb, Junior 5.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg  22 mpg.  Makes .660 of his fg attempts but only .438 of his FT attempts. 

Key Reserves
Forward Kuba Niziol  #35  6’7”, 210 lb.  Senior  6 ppg, 3.8 rpg.  Former starter, still playing 17 mpg. Fourth leading scorer, shooting just 11-50 from deep.
Guard Junior Ballard  #24  6’3”, 200 lb. Freshman  5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 14 mpg    Shooting .339 from the field and .294 from deep.
Forward Tuuka Jaakola  #14  6’10”, 240 lb, Freshman 3.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 17 mpg, shooting an outstanding .696 from the field.  Has played in just 10 games.  From Finland
Guard Job Alexander  #1  6’4”, 200 lb. JC Transfer Junior 13 mpg.
Forward Karlis Garoza  #23  6’9”, 230 lb, Sophomore  12 mpg. 3 rpg. From Latvia 

Match-Up:  There could be some rustiness and an ugly start since it has been two weeks since UCSB has played a D1 team but that will also be the case for the Mustangs.  By half-time, only Poly should be playing ugly.

Keys to the game for the Gauchos
·       Expect Ramsey to put the clamps on Fields.  This defensive matchup and the one with Davis’s Shorts are the two I’ve been waiting to see.
·       Contain Crowe.  The Mustang’s biggest three-point threat. 
·       Pound it into Sow again.  We have a star in the making and this is a good opportunity for him to continue to excel.  Poly does not rebound well and the Gaucho front court should take advantage.
·       Max integration project.  Max led with penetrating the defense and facilitating the offense (8 assists) in his last game played (Idaho State) and that is the way back for him.  His shot will come, with the weapons this team has, no need to force it.

Prediction:  Aside from rustiness, nothing should slow down UCSB.  Gauchos 83 Mustangs 60

Official Site:
Hey Guys! To
How to Watch:

Big West Conference Three-Man Weave Pre-Season Preview Link: ... eview-2019

No comments: