Saturday, February 1, 2020

UCSB vs. LBSU Men's Basketball Game Preview, by Gaucho Dan

UCSB at Long Beach State
Saturday, February 1, 2020, 4 pm PST, ESPN3
 
Quick Bite
I just got my new driver's license the other day. Different images pop out as you hold the card and move it around in different orientations to the light. One image is a 49er. Racist California. Saturday, the Gauchos meet a school that has moved beyond its racist origins to embrace new identities. Lots of them.

By the Numbers                                                              
 
 Quadrant 4 Game
Record (D1) 13-8 8-15
Away/Home (D1) 5-5 (A) 5-4 (H)
Big West Conference 2-4 2-4
Composite National Rankings
NET, kpi, sor, bpi, pom, sag 193 282
DCI 229 290
DC2 189 309
RPI 227 269
NET 186 285
SOS (NET) 339 129
Efficiency Rankings (Pomeroy) 
Offense 101 294
Defense 267 255
Tempo 337 37
Team Statistics (Overall/BWC)
Scoring 71.5 (175)  /  64.2 (9) 68.0 (271)  /  68.0 (8)
2Pt % 54.0 (38)  /  51.4 (3) 46.9 (289)  /  46.7 (7)
3Pt % 33.8 (147)  /  35.1 (6) 36.3 (51)  /  40.2 (2)
FT% 75.2 (47)  /  74.8 (1) 68.5 (235)  /  67.5 (6)
Scoring Defense 67.1 (118)  /  65.8 (2) 76.6 (324)  /  71.8 (5)
2Pt % Defense 50.9 (257)  /  53.7 (9) 52.2 (295)  /  51.3 (7)
3Pt % Defense 36.3 (315)  /  35.5 (6) 34.4 (253)  /  32.2 (1)
Off. Rebounds 10.3 (157)  /  8.0 (8) 9.0 (219)  /  8.3 (6)
Def. Rebounds allowed 21.2 (21)  /  21.3 (1) 25.7 (269)  /  25.5 (4)
Def. Rebounds 24.2 (261)  /  21.5 (9) 24.7 (179)  /  24.2 (6)
Off. Rebounds allowed 7.6 (19)  /  6.7 (2) 11.9 (336)  /  10.7 (7)
Total Rebounds 34.5 (231)  /  29.5 (9) 33.7 (205)  /  32.5 (6)
Total Rebounds allowed 28.8 (14)  /  28.0 (2) 37.6 (320)  /  36.2 (6)
Assists 13.2 (181)  /  10.5 (6) 11.0 (280)  /  9.0 (9)
Steals 4.6 (335)  /  5.3 (6) 6.2 (164)  /  4.7 (8)
Blocks 2.5 (256)  /  1.7 (7) 3.9 (72)  /  5.0 (1)
Best win (NET) @ UT Arlington (114) vs. Providence (78)
Worst loss (NET) vs. LB State (285) vs. CSUF (246)
Trend (D1 only)  Lost 4 of 5 Lost 3 of 4

UCSB - Long Beach State History
UCSB and Long Beach State have played 129 times dating back to 1952. The Gauchos have played Long Beach, which has a 69-60 all-time edge, more than any other opponent. The teams have split their match-ups each of the last two seasons with the road team winning every game and on Jan. 11 in the first meeting this year, Long Beach won 55-52 at the Thunderdome.

Head Coach
The winningest coach in LBSU history, Dan Monson has piled up 200 wins at LBSU and led Long Beach State to three Big West Championships, six top three finishes, three NIT appearances as well as a trip to the 2011-12 NCAA Tournament.  Monson’s success at Long Beach State has been rewarded with three Big West Coach of the Year awards, as well as back-to-back NABC All-District Coach recognition from 2010-11 and 2011-12. The conference coaching award following the 2011-12 season marked the fourth time that Monson has been recognized as a league’s top coach, previously winning the honor as the West Coast Conference Coach of the Year in 1998 following his first season at Gonzaga.

Roster 
Probable Starters
  • G (14) Colin Slater, 6'1", 190 lbs, Junior, 11.5 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 2.0 Ast. A transfer from Tulane, he is 2nd-best 3-point % at .406 (4.1 attempts per game). Only 43% from two. Defensively below average. Scored just 2 points in 23 minutes at UCSB. Scored 12 pts Thursday at Riverside and had a career-high 28 vs. UC Davis.
  • G (31) Chance Hunter, 6'6", 190 lbs, Sophomore, 14.9 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 0.9 Ast. A transfer from Cerritos JC, he is LB's leading scorer and is also their best 3-point shooter at .434 (6.7 attempts per game). Has the highest usage on the team at 29.1%. Scored 16 points at UCSB and 20 points at Riverside.
  • G (3) Drew Cobb, 6'4", 205 lbs, Junior, 4.7 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 1.2 Ast. Just broke into the starting lineup. Not a threat offensively, he is considered to be a defensive stopper. The splits don't exactly bear that out. Expect him to guard Heidegger. Had 2 points in 18 minutes at UCSB, and 7 points at Riverside.
  • F (13) Romelle Mansel, 6'9", 230 lbs, Freshman, 4.1 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 0.7 Ast. A good compliment to Morgan (see below), although not one of the primary options offensively (usage 15.6%). Scored 6 with 4 rebounds at UCSB, and 8 and 5 at UC Riverside. Has 20 steals.
  • C (24) Joshua Morgan, 6'11", 195 lbs, Freshman, 8.2 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 1.1 Ast. Tops in the Big West in blocks at 52. Scored 10 points with 7 rebounds at UCSB, and 8 and 2 at Riverside. Leads team in effective FG% (.612), Player Efficiency Rating (19.4), Defensive Rebounding (17.0% of available def. rebs.), Total Rebounding (13.1% of available rebs.), Blocks (10.1% of all 2-point attempts), Win Shares (1.8), Win Shares per 40 minutes (.123), Defensive Box Plus/Minus (+4.4) and overall Box Plus/Minus (+4.8).
Key Reserves
  • G (1) Michael Carter III, 6'5", 190 lbs, Sophomore, 12.2 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 2.8 Ast. A transfer from Washington, he leads the team in assists and is 2nd on the team in scoring. Grabbed a career-high 15 rebounds vs. CSULA. Takes a lot of threes (4.1 attempts per game), but makes just 31% of them. Just 43.2 from two. Gets to the free throw line (4.1 attempts per game) and makes them (.839). Assist percentage is highest on team (22.7% of all baskets while on floor). Lost his starting job to Cobb, but still got 14 points in just 18 minutes at UCR.
  • C (32) Trever Irish, 7'0", 230 lbs, Sophomore, 2.0 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 0.4 Ast. The school's first 7-footer in 8 seasons. Averages 9 minutes per game. Has made just 43.5% of his shots.
  • G (2) Jordan Roberts, 6'8", 195 lbs, Junior, 4.2 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 0.9 Ast. Had 7 points in 20 minutes at UCSB, but earned just 9 minutes at Riverside. Averaged 8.4 ppg last season, but has lost time to the newcomers. Has the worst offensive box plus/minus (-5.8) of major players on the team.  Effective FG% is just .366, again the worst numbers among key LB players.
  • G (10) Max de Geest, 6'3", 185 lbs, Freshman, 3.8 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 1.2 Ast. From New Zealand, tends to shoot from three (18 attempts from two vs. 54 attempts from three). Only hitting .315 from three.
  • G (11) Jordan Griffin, 6'3", 165 lbs, Senior, 3.7 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 0.3 Ast. The lone senior, he is a strong outside shooter who is 16th on the school's career three-pointer list. He is 16-of-40 from three this season. Has the second-best effective FG% (.565) on the team. He is a very bad -4.5 in Defensive Box Plus/Minus. Was held scoreless at UCSB, and didn't score his last time out at Riverside.
Match-up overview:
The 49ers, I mean LBC, I mean The Beach has gone with the kids in 2019-20, and combine that with Long Beach's usual tough non-conference schedule the results have been poor. Still, Long Beach is very capable of beating anyone. In their opener, they lost by just 4 at UCLA. They took down Providence at the Wooden Legacy, and lost at USC by just 11. But Southern Utah won by 21 in the Pyramid, they lost by 22 at Seattle and by 18 at CSUN. Their two Big West wins: at UCSB and vs. conference leader UC Irvine. You really don't know which Long Beach team is going to show up from game to game.

Lately, the same Gaucho squad has been showing up. UCSB has allowed the opponents to shoot 50% or better in five straight games. Weaknesses have been exposed, and exploited, on most players on the team. The offense has been sloppy, suffering 17 turnovers at CSUN...many of the moving screen/charging variety. Max Heidegger has been sublime, but the rest of the team has struggled. JaQuori McLaughlin is still recovering from a groin injury that caused him to miss the home CSUN game, and the jury is still out on whether the re-integration of Heidegger into the lineup has disrupted what was working in December. Amadou Sow came on in the 2nd half at CSUN, but he's been prone to 1st-half foul trouble and struggles to recognize double teams and how to beat them. The starting lineup has been in flux as Coach Pasternack tries to find the right combination.

Keys to the game for the Gauchos 
  • Defense. UCSB needs to get back in transition, and needs to hold teams under 50% shooting. That's not a high bar, but it has been lately.
  • Stay out of foul trouble. Sow in particular usually picks up a foul in the 1st minute of the game. Goes hand-in-hand with defense, but some of these fouls have been so silly. Pull up for the short jumper rather than take a charging call. Set the screen before rolling (guards need to be patient, too).
  • Balanced scoring. Heidegger scored 30 of UCSB's 67 points at CSUN. The bench got just 8.

Prediction
DC2 trends: UCSB is a horrible 28.78 in its last five (the worst in the Big West), while Long Beach is 43.28 in its last 5 (overall 33.86). UCSB has failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games, and would have been 0-5 outright if not for a Mad Max Miracle 3 vs. UC Riverside. UCSB struggles with higher-tempo teams. They have been swept by CSUN (Pomeroy adjusted tempo = 70) and beaten by Rice (86), Long Beach (37) and Hawai'i (122). Then there's the 2nd time through the Big West stat: the margin of victory/defeat worsens 71% of the time in the Joe Pasternack era. My eeyore mood continues. Long Beach State wins 74-62.

Official Site:  https://longbeachstate.com/sports/mens-basketball
Hey Guys!:  https://members4.boardhost.com/49erSports/ or https://members5.boardhost.com/49erHoops/
How to Watch:  https://www.espn.com/watch/player?id=96 ... c781f10405

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