Friday, January 24, 2020

UCR vs. UCSB Men's Basketball Game Preview, by GauchoDan

UCSB vs. UC Riverside
Saturday, January 25, 2020, 7 PM PST
 
Quick Bite
A three-game losing streak has knocked out Freg, and I had some time to put this together on a Friday morning. It doesn't get any easier. A confident UC Riverside arrives in the Thunderdome on Saturday.

By the Numbers                                                              
 
 Quadrant 4 Game
RVsmall.jpg (2.66KiB)
Record (D1) 13-8 12-7
Home/Away (D1) 4-6 (A) 7-3 (H)
Big West Conference 3-2 1-3
Composite National Rankings
NET, kpi, sor, bpi, pom, sag 210 183
DCI 248 199
DC2 202 173
RPI 254 236
NET 217 174
SOS (NET) 343 339
Efficiency Rankings (Pomeroy) 
Offense 266 81
Defense 158 267
Tempo 327 339
Team Statistics (Overall/BWC)
Scoring 66.6 (300)  /  69.6 (3) 72.1 (161)  /  63.3 (8)
FG% 43.6 (186)  /  43.0 (4) 46.6 (43)  /  43.3 (3)
3Pt % 35.4 (89)  /  37.0 (3) 33.2 (184)  /  32.5 (7)
FT% 68.5 (227)  /  70.5 (4) 75.9 (39)  /  77.9 (1)
Scoring Defense 61.0 (21)  /  66.2 (3) 66.7 (115)  /  63.3 (2)
FG % Defense 40.6 (88)  /  44.9 (7) 44.6 (269)  /  45.7 (8)
3Pt % Defense 33.2 (209)  /  40.2 (7) 36.0 (310)  /  36.8 (6)
Off. Rebounds 9.6 (147)  /  9.8 (2) 10.8 (135)  /  9.3 (6)
Def. Rebounds allowed 23.1 (184)  /  24.0 (6) 20.9 (19)  /  20.3 (1)
Def. Rebounds 27.9 (10)  /  27.2 (1) 24.6 (251)  /  22.0 (9)
Off. Rebounds allowed 7.1 (27)  /  6.6 (3) 8.1 (36)  /  8.5 (5)
Total Rebounds 37.5 (26)  /  37.0 (1) 35.4 (212)  /  31.3 (9)
Total Rebounds allowed 30.2 (106)  /  30.6 (6) 28.9 (17)  /  28.8 (1)
Assists 13.2 (98)  /  12.2 (2) 13.4 (174)  /  10.5 (8)
Steals 5.0 (278)  /  4.6 (7) 4.7 (333)  /  6.0 (6)
Blocks 2.4 (246)  /  2.6 (5) 2.7 (239)  /  2.0 (7)
Best win (NET) Fresno State (162) UT Arlington (118)
Worst loss (NET) CSUN (245) LBC The Beach (282)
Trend (D1 only)  Won 1, 4 of last 6 Lost 3

UCSB - UC Riverside History
UCSB and UC Riverside have played 45 times in a series that began in 1955. The Gauchos hold an all-time edge of 35-10, and the teams split a pair of games last season with the Highlanders winning 71-57 in Riverside and UCSB winning 72-64 at the Thunderdome, where UCR has never won.

Head Coach
David Patrick became the Head Men's Basketball Coach at UC Riverside in March of 2018 following successful assistant coaching stints at TCU and LSU. He enters his second season following an inaugural campaign (2018-19) which saw the Highlanders break several program records including 279 three-point shots culminating in a .379 three-point shooting percentage which was the best in the Big West Conference and top 30 (28th) in the nation.

Roster 
The Highlanders announced themselves on opening night of the 2019-20 season with a "buy game" win at Big Ten doormat Nebraska. Riverside later picked up a win at Fresno State, but turned around and got blown out by Air Force (57-106). Last time out, Riverside ran roughshod over an improving Cal Poly squad...making 16-of-30 three-pointers in a 97-64 runaway.

Probable Starters
  • G (13) Khyber Kabellis, 6'4", 185 lbs, Senior, 5.4 ppg, 3.4 reb, 3.2 apg, 21.7 min. Played two years at North Dakota State and one year at Pacific before graduate-transferring to UCR. Kabellis went off vs. Cal Poly, hitting four three-pointers to break out of a horrible shooting slump (just 5-of-41 from three prior to Thursday night).
  • G (15) Dikymbe Martin, 6'1", 170 lbs, Senior, 7.6 ppg, 1.4 reb, 1.4 apg, 17.8 min. An enigma...has a history of suspensions and missed four games at the start of this season and has just now cracked the starting lineup. Averages 4.5 three-point attempts per game, making 42%...make him drive, as he hits just 35% of his two-pointers. 81% free-thrower.
  • G (22) Dominick Pickett, 6'3", 210 lbs, Junior, 6.9 ppg, 2.4 reb, 1.5 apg, 24.6 min. The only other player to have started each game this season. One of four players who attempt at least 2.9 three-pointers per game, hitting at a 43% rate. Two-point % very low at just 41%...make him drive as well. 90% free-throw best on team.
  • F (1) Arinze Chidom, 6'9", 240 lbs, Junior, 11.3 ppg, 7.3 reb, 1.5 apg, 22.3 min. Became eligible in December after leaving the Washington State team a year prior. Has started 9 of 10 games since. Scored 18 points vs. Cal Poly. Probablt the best three-point shooter on the team, hitting at a blazing 48.3% on 2.9 attempts per game.
  • C (23) Angus McWilliam, 6'10", 240 lbs, Sophomore, 7.4 ppg, 4.7 reb, 17.3 min. Hits 61% of his shots from inside the three-point line. He will take the three, but he only hits 21% of them. Originally from New Zealand, transferred in from TCU)
Key Reserves
  • (35) George Willborn III, 6'3", 195 lbs, Junior, 7.7 ppg, 5.2 reb, 1.0 apg, 23.1 min. Redshirt transfer from UTSA. Didn't play vs. Cal Poly.
  • (25) Callum McRae, 7'1", 275 lbs, Sophomore, 9.0 ppg, 6.2 reb, 1.1 apg, 22.4 min. One of only six 7-footers in the conference, he has started 16 of 21 games this season. 
  • (5) Zyon Pullin, 6'4", 195 lbs, Freshman, 5.1 ppg, 2.5 reb, 2.4 apg, 20.7 min.
  • (3) DJ McDonald, 5'11", 175 lbs, Sophomore, 5.4 ppg, 16.9 min. Hits 37.3% of his threes (3.6 attempts per game)
  • (10) Dragan Elkaz, 6'5", 205 lbs, Sophomore, 6.1 ppg, 1.4 reb, 16.8 min. Started two games. Hits 40.2% of his threes (4.6 attempts per game)
  • (11) Zac Watson, 6'7", 210 lbs, Sophomore, 3.2 ppg, 3.4 reb, 13.4 min. Hits 61.7% of his two-point attempts.
  • (4) Daniel Mading, 6'9", 200 lbs, Sophomore, 3.3 ppg, 2.4 reb, 12.3 min. Started 7 games, has missed nine games.
Match-up overview:
UC RV played a similar non-conference schedule to the Gauchos...putrid. However, that allowed the team to post its best non-conference record (10-6) since it joined the Big West in 2001. Riverside leads the conference in three-point attempts (23.6 per game), which translates to one of the higher effective field-goal percentages in the conference (51.2%). Combine 3-point-shooting with a beefy interior with excellent rebounding and a plodding temp, and you have an Irvine-like team in style, if not talent.  UCSB is in a sudden funk, having lost three in a row since cruising through the latter 75% of its non-conference schedule. The skid coincides with the return of Max Heidegger, although that may have nothing to do with the startling turnaround. Second-half collapses continue to plague the team, as it has now lost five games in which it led at halftime. UCSB is especially vulnerable to penetrating guards. Hopefully, JaQuori McLaughlin can play after missing the CSUN game.

Keys to the game for the Gauchos 
  • Prevent three-point attempts. Not just by extending the defense...prevent the inside-out game.
  • Play 40 minutes. The team has run out of gas in the 2nd half in three straight games. Riverside spreads its minutes around to a greater number of players. Could they be more rested in crunch time.
  • Offense continues to stagnate. Ball reversals are important, and recognition of double teams (looking at you, Amadou) is as well. If JaQuori plays, there needs to be better integration between him and Max. We have two dynamic, penetrating guards and yet the offense is standing around.
  • Starting lineup: who sits when JaQuori starts? Freeman already took a seat for Idehen. Is Cyrus sitting?
  • Boards: both teams are very good rebounding squads. Who will win the battle for second-chance buckets. I'd like to see Toure flying in for rebounds.

Prediction
The trend has been very bad for UCSB. The Gauchos' overall raw DC2 is 49.76, but the last five is just 41.61. UCR is flying high after its rout of Cal Poly. With no chance really for Joe Pasternack to reset the Gauchos, I'm going with a gut-wrenching 72-70 victory to stop, temporarily, the bleeding.

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