Friday, January 17, 2020

UCSB vs. Hawaii Men's Basketball Game Preview, by Gaucho Freg

UCSB @ Hawaii
Saturday, January 18, 2020, 10 PM PST
Quick Bite:  Gauchos will travel ~ 2700 miles to search for their missing offense when they take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.

By the Numbers                                                             
Quadrant  3 Game
Hawaii_Warriors_logo.png (5.68KiB)
UCSB logo small.png (7.12KiB)
Record (D1) 9-610-5
Big West Conference 2-1  1-1
Home/Away (D1) 8-3 (H) 5-3 (A)
Composite National Rankings
DCI 1&2, BPI, SOR, KP, Massey, NET, RPI, Sagarin 176 149
NET 175 160
SOS (NET) 229 341
Efficiency Rankings (Pomeroy) 
Offense 190 93
Defense 163 213
Team Statistics (Overall/BWC)
Scoring 70.6  /  66.7 72.4/  57.5
FG% 44%  /  38% 47% /  41%
3Pt % 34%  /  33% 34% /  40%
FT% 71%  / 66% 75%  /  68%
Defense:  PPG Allowed 71.0  /  68.0  65.6 /  50.0 
FG % Defense 43%  /  43% 44%  /  40%
3Pt % Defense 33%  /  36% 35%  /  28% 
Steals PG 5.2  /  3.3 4.9/8.5
Blocks PG 2.5  /  1.7 2.9/3.5
Rebounding Margin  +1.0  /  +1.0 +7.0  /   +4.0
Assists/Turnovers PG 14.1/13.7 / 12.3/10.7 13.9/12.3 /  11.5 /14.0
Best win (NET) San Francisco (97) UT Arlington (130)
Worst loss (NET) S. Dakota (198) Beach Beach (287)
Trend (D1 only)  Won 1 Lost 1
UCSB- Hawaii History/Last Season Recap
This will be the 24th meeting between the two teams with the series with the Gauchos holding a 12-11 advantage and having won three straight. Technically, UCSB holds a 12-9 advantage as Hawaii’s two wins in 2013 were later vacated. Last year the Gauchos cruised in both games, winning by 21 on the rock and by 18 in Santa Barbara.  The SB front court was too much for the Warriors with Sow the leading scorer in both games and Armond Davis also being very productive in both games.  Heidegger tied Sow for the scoring lead in the first game with 20 points.
Head Coach
Evan Ganot is in his 5th season at the helm of the Warriors and boasts an overall record of 74-44 and a conference record of 32-21. He missed the majority of the OOC season due to an undisclosed health issue but is now back at the helm.  In his first season, 2015-16, the Warriors won both the Big West regular season and tournament titles and went to the NCAAs and registered an upset first round win over Cal.  This was the first tournament win in program history. He was named BW Coach of the year that season. Since, he has consecutive 8-8 finishes.  
The Arena
The Warriors play in the 10,300 seat Stan Sheriff Center, constructed in 1994.  It is the largest arena in the Big West.  The Warriors are averaging 5,432 in attendance. 

Roster  Hawaii fields an experienced starting roster with just one underclassman in the lineup.  They aren’t the deepest team with four starters averaging 32 minutes or more and the reserves are mostly underclassmen.

Probable Starters
Guard Drew Buggs  #1 6’3” 195lbs, RS Junior  9.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 5.4 apg, 34 mpg.  Mostly a slash & dish player but he is attempting more threes this year which has lowered his FG%, just 36% overall and 28% from deep.  His 5.4 assists per game leads the conference and he has a solid 1.8 ATO ratio.
Guard Eddie Stansbury  #3  6’3”, 190lb, JC Transfer Senior  17.0 ppg,  3.3 rpg, 88% FT shooter on 3.5 attempts per game, 37 mpg. Leads the team in scoring and three point makes (52, 35%) 40% of his shots are from deep.
Wing Samuta Avea  #32  6’6”, 195 lb  Junior  11.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 32 mpg.  Shooting 39% from deep, second on team in 3 point makes (32).  Local boy, has doubled his production and minutes played from last year.
Forward Zigmars Raimo  #14  6’8”, 230 lb. Senior  8.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 33 mpg.  From Latvia, he leads the team in rebounding and in FT attempts and is making those at a 75% clip after shooting just a little over 50% last year.  He also leads the team in steals
Forward Bernardo Da Silva  #14  6’9”, 200 lb. Freshman  5.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 14 mpg. 
Recently replaced Dawson Carper in the starting line-up.  From Brazil. 

Key Reserves
Guard Justin Webster  #3  6’3”, 175 lb, Freshman 7.4 ppg, 17 mpg.
Outside threat, 75% of his shots are from deep (35%) 
Center Dawson Carper  #44  7’0”, 250 lb Sophomore  6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg 16 mpg  Recently bumped after starting 14 games.
Wing Justin Hemsley  #42 6’6”, 195lb, Senior  3.1 ppg, 12 mpg
Center Mate Colina  #11  7’0”, 240 lb  Sophomore
From Australia, not playing too much this year, limited production.

View from a Hawaii fan:  Hawaii Insider is a professional fan site and does a terrific job of previewing Warrior games.

Match-up overview:   Neither team is coming into this game on a high note; UCSB was held to 52 points by one of the worst defenses in the country in their loss to Long Beach which proceeded to give up 85 points to Davis which ranks in the 200s KenPom offensive efficiency.  Meanwhile, UH struggled to defeat Poly and were easily defeated on the road by Irvine. 
The Warriors have an excellent back court with the talented shooting guard Eddie Stansbury and PG Drew Buggs who leads the league in assists.  Wing Samuta  Avea may be the most improved in the league as he has doubled his production from last year.

Keys to the game for the Gauchos
·        Sow and Idehen can win the battle in the post.  Production out of the 4 & 5 spots were huge in the comfortable Gaucho wins last year.  Not including Freeman in this as he is most effective on the perimeter.  Raimo is similarly sized to Sow and is much more productive this season compared to last They have size off the bench in Carper too so this is a key match up to watch. 
·        Leverage their depth advantage in the SG/wing positions.  Between Cyrus, Toure, Max and McLaughlin they have the tools to limit the very effective Stansbury and emerging Avea. They were successful in this task last year and need a repeat.
·        Drew Buggs has a significant size advantage at the point over Ramsey.  Mixed results vs. him last year, shut him down in the first game but in the second he went for 13 on 60% from the field along with 8 boards and 4 assists.  Tough match up for Ramsey or McLaughlin.
·        Max integration project, reboot. Will take time but a healthy confident Max integrating smoothly in the offense will make the Gauchos very tough to beat in the BW.  I don’t expect it to happen just yet but the Gauchos have shown they can win without him so may not be critical yet.
Prediction:  Both teams are in need of a win. For the Gauchos, it feels more desperate after the head scratching loss to lowly LB.  Honestly, I’ve no idea, depends upon which Gaucho offense shows up.  UCSB’s defense has been fairly consistent but their offense is sputtering of late.  UCSB is 2-2 in Quad 3 games and this is close to a pickem.  I’ll go homer and bet on the Gaucho depth for a 1 point victory,
UCSB 64  UH 63

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