Monday, January 27, 2020

UCSB vs CSUN Men's Basketball Game Preview, by Gaucho Dan

UCSB at CSUN
Thursday, January 30, 2020, 8 PM PST, ESPNU
 
Quick Bite
This preview is being filed under protest with the Association of Basketball (College) Die-Hards Evaluating Field Goalers (the A-B-C-D-E-F-G). Let's see Pimm mangle that one. It's easier if you sing it. UCSB escaped Saturday night with a win thanks to the Mad Max Three, but now must confront a CSUN team that had its number just one week ago.

By the Numbers                                                              
 
 Quadrant 4 Game
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Record (D1) 13-7 8-14
Away/Home (D1) 5-4 (A) 5-3 (H)
Big West Conference 2-3 3-3
Composite National Rankings
NET, kpi, sor, bpi, pom, sag 183 252
DCI 199 258
DC2 176 287
RPI 219 250
NET 181 251
SOS (NET) 340 178
Efficiency Rankings (Pomeroy) 
Offense 89 152
Defense 267 329
Tempo 339 74
Team Statistics (Overall/BWC)
Scoring 71.7 (166)  /  63.6 (8) 74.9 (94)  /  75.2 (1)
2Pt % 54.3 (34)  /  52.2 (1) 49.3 (203)  /  49.4 (4)
3Pt % 33.3 (178)  /  33.3 (7) 36.1 (61)  /  39.0 (1)
FT% 75.4 (45)  /  75.3 (1) 71.1 (152)  /  73.3 (2)
Scoring Defense 66.6 (111)  /  63.2 (2) 79.3 (339)  /  73.7 (9)
2Pt % Defense 50.4 (243)  /  53.7 (9) 52.5 (307)  /  50.2 (7)
3Pt % Defense 35.8 (302)  /  35.5 (6) 37.4 (339)  /  32.1 (3)
Off. Rebounds 10.5 (146)  /  8.4 (8) 9.2 (175)  /  8.2 (5)
Def. Rebounds allowed 21.0 (17)  /  20.8 (1) 26.5 (327)  /  37.3 (8)
Def. Rebounds 24.4 (263)  /  21.6 (9) 24.1 (149)  /  26.0 (2)
Off. Rebounds allowed 7.8 (21)  /  7.4 (2) 11.3 (329)  /  11.3 (8)
Total Rebounds 34.9 (228)  /  30.0 (9) 33.3 (157)  /  34.2 (4)
Total Rebounds allowed 28.8 (11)  /  28.2 (1) 37.9 (339)  /  37.3 (8)
Assists 13.5 (175)  /  13.5 (6) 14.1 (46)  /  13.8 (1)
Steals 4.6 (340)  /  5.4 (6) 6.3 (143)  /  6.0 (1)
Blocks 2.6 (255)  /  1.8 (8) 2.8 (190)  /  2.8 (5)
Best win (NET) @ UT Arlington (114) @ UCSB (181)
Worst loss (NET) CSUN (251) @ Cal Poly (327)
Trend (D1 only)  Won 1, Lost 3 of 4 Lost 1, Lost 3 of 5

UCSB - CSUN History

UCSB and CSUN have played 60 times in a series that dates to 1959. Santa Barbara has an all-time edge of 40-20 over the Matadors, but had a five-game winning streak in the series snapped last Wednesday in an 83-75 loss to visiting Northridge. Last season, the Gauchos won 70-64 at the Thunderdome, 76-74 at the Matadome and 71-68 in the first round of the Big West Tournament.

Head Coach
An 11-time NCAA Tournament coach, Mark Gottfried enters his second season leading the Matador men's basketball program in 2019-20. Gottfried is the sixth head coach in the history of the program. Gottfried orchestrated a seven-game turnaround and guided CSUN to its most overall wins (13) and conference wins (7) in five seasons. The Matadors also played in a national postseason tournament for the first time since 2009 with an appearance in the College Basketball Invitational. Gottfried started at Murray State, moving on to Alabama and NC State. The Wolfpack are under NCAA investigation over the recruitment of Dennis Smith Jr., which grew out of an FBI investigation into apparel company Adidas.  Gottfried was charged under the NCAA provision of head-coach responsibility for violations within his program.

Roster 
Probable Starters
  • G (2) Elijah Harkless, 6'4", 195 lbs, Sophomore, 9.9 ppg, 6.3 reb, 3.2 apg, 28.3 min. Had 4 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists in only 18 minutes at UCSB (foul trouble), but turned around and had 14 points and 6 rebounds in 38 minutes in their loss at Fullerton. One of only two players on the team with a positive box plus/minus due to his better-than-average defense.
  • G (3) Terrell Gomez, 5'8", 160 lbs, Junior, 20.6 ppg, 2.5 reb, 2.4 apg, 36.9 min. Was 3-for-5 from three for 15 points at UCSB. Doesn't need much room to get his shot off. Takes 54% of his shots from three, where he is hitting at a team-high 42%. He took 12 threes at Fullerton, making 6 of them. Defensively he can be exploited (-5.7 defensive box plus/minus).
  • G (10) Darius Brown II, 6'1", 180 lbs, Sophomore, 9.6 ppg, 3.4 reb, 4.4 apg, 31.5 min. Absolutely killed us, going 4-of-5 from three for 21 points along with 8 assists. He's their 2nd-best 3-point shooter by percentage (39%), and has the second-best win shares per 40 minutes on the squad at .117. Brown leads the team in assists, and will take it inside if necessary.
  • F (25) Jared Pearre, 6'9", 190 lbs, Sophomore, 3.9 ppg, 3.6 reb, 0.9 apg, 18.8 min. Offensively challenged, but not against us! He exploded for a 5-for-7 performance...probably all via alley-oop slam dunks. He was scoreless in 14 minutes at Fullerton due to foul trouble.
  • F (35) Lamine Diane, 6'7", 205 lbs, Sophomore, 27.9 ppg, 10.6 reb, 2.4 apg, 34.8 min. The best opposing player I have seen in a long time. He's long-armed, has a variety of moves, gets calls, etc. Has added a 3-point shot, although he is only hitting at 29% (3.6 attempts per game). He has a very high usage rate (41%) and will usually play all 40 minutes. However, he has fouled out twice this season (just 9 games). CSUN lost both games. He has a deceptive fadeaway in that he brings his arms way behind his head to shoot...impossible to block from in front of him (hint, hint). Had 27 vs. us (just 9 at halftime) and 32 at Fullerton before fouling out with a minute left.
Key Reserves
  • F (0) Lance Coleman, 6'6", 205 lbs, Junior, 8.1 ppg, 3.2 reb, 0.9 apg, 24.2 min. Has taken the 2nd-most threes on the team (almost 5 per game), but makes just 31% of them. 2nd-worst on team defensively (-4.5 DBPM). Has averaged just 3 minutes the last two games, so he's apparently in the doghouse.
  • G/F (32) Brendan Harrick, 6'5", 190 lbs, Freshman, 4.6 ppg, 1.6 reb, 0.7 apg, 17.6 min. Hits just 29% of this threes (made one against us and had 6 points). Missed all 5 threes at Fullerton. Another defensive liability.
  • F (15) Ron Artest III, 6'7", 215 lbs, Sophomore, 2.1 ppg, 3.3 reb, 0.5 apg, 13.7 min. Just 11-of-30 from the field. Has not played in at least a couple of games.
  • F (11) Festus Ndumanya, 6'7", 220 lbs, Freshman, 2.6 ppg, 2.3 reb, 0.4 apg, 12.8 min. Picks up 8.2 fouls per 40 minutes. 
  • C (30) Michael Ou, 6'9", 230 lbs, Sophomore, 3.9 ppg, 3.6 reb, 0.9 apg, 10.6 min. Also hasn't played recently. Actually semi-decent offensively, but bad on defense.
Match-up overview:
The Matadors had to without star Lamine Diane for the fall quarter due to academics, and they were woeful without him...going 3-10. They are 5-4 since, with wins at UC Riverside and UCSB. However, Cal Poly destroyed them, and UC Davis and Cal State Fullerton have also picked up wins against them.  CSUN plays at a much-faster pace than deliberate UCSB. Offense consists of Diane, Brown and Gomez. After that, it drops off pretty fast. Gauchos did a great job on Diane in the 1st half, but he got rolling in the 2nd half. Gomez and Brown have to be blanketed, bot exactly a Gaucho specialty.

UCSB got a much-needed victory over UCRV, although it wasn't pretty. JaQuori McLaughlin returned, but didn't look 100% until late in the game. The defense still gave up over 50% shooting, but got a key stop that set up the Mad Max 3.  Matt Freeman got his starting job back, and looked more instinctual on his two made 3's...and he added 4 assists. Sow had 16 points and 6 rebounds, but his 5th turnover almost cost the team the game. Brandon Cyrus got 22 minutes off the bench and scored 6 points along with 4 rebounds. Robinson Idehen was 3-for-3 but only played 11 minutes. Sekou Toure played just 4!

Keys to the game for the Gauchos 
  • Diane will get his points, but make him work for them. Maybe throw some double teams at him, as long as they're not coming from Brown or Gomez. Go at him on defense.
  • Play 40 minutes. In all 3 recent losses, the team led at halftime. Finally, vs. Riverside, they trailed at the half and rallied for the win.
  • Get more from the bench. Sekou needs to play more. When's the last time Nagle hit a basket?
  • Stop Brown and/or Gomez from going off. These guys need to be forced to put the ball on the floor.
  • Attack on offense. This is a bad defensive team, especially coming off the bench. McLaughlin, Ramsey and Max need to take it to the hole.

Prediction
DC2 trends: UCSB is a paltry 38.35 in its last five, while CSUN is 43.28 in its last 5 (overall 37.81). It's funny how our mood changes just because we scored a couple of points more than the other team. We really didn't play any better on defense. There was more grit, and that's a good thing. But my gut doesn't like this matchup, and we pick the Gauchos too much around here (18 out of 19 times). CSUN is win-lose-win-lose lately, and they're coming off a loss. Should be a good crowd, as CSUN wants everyone to wear black. CSUN wins 76-69.

Official Site https://gomatadors.com/index.aspx?path=mbball
Hey Guys!:  https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/bigwest ... etball-f9/
How to Watch: https://www.espn.com/watch/player?id=81 ... 8b8b313970

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