UCSB vs UCD Game Preview, by gauchodan

Game 30 (BW Game 19)

UCSB at UC Davis
Thursday, March 2, 2023, 6:00 pm PST
Davis, Calif.
 
Quick Bite
They are all must-win games now.  This week, we must win twice to have any chance to gain the #1 seed for the Big West Tournament.  While UC Irvine at UC Riverside is the marquee matchup, in the end it doesn't really matter who wins that game from our perspective.  The Gauchos (22-7, 13-5) just need to win to keep pace, and hope for some help on Saturday.  A depleted UCSB squad played very well last week.  It was nice to get JPL back for the UCSD game, but the Gauchos managed to outlast speedy Long Beach State without him.  Matija Belic has taken advantage of injuries to take on a more prominent role.  He brings a propensity to drive and kick, and flashes well to open spots on the floor.  The team in general is adjusting to life without KKK and Ajare.

Will this game even be played?  A week ago, the Aggies (17-12, 10-7) canceled a game at Cal State Fullerton due to not having enough healthy players to field the 8 required to play.  Two nights later, they were able to make the trip to last-place Cal Poly.  Hmmm.  It actually wouldn't hurt us to have the game canceled...we could still win the Big West outright with a win vs. Hawai'i coupled with the UCI/UCR winner losing on Saturday.  UCD is in a battle to avoid 7th place, but that will largely depend on their Saturday matchup with Long Beach State.  Elijah Pepper has been a scoring machine for the last month.  Pepper is averaging 28.1 points on 19 shot attempts per game since January 26.  During that stretch he is shooting .494 from the field (season average is .457), .419 from 3-point range (season average .337) and .852 from the free throw line (.800 season avg.).  All this while averaging 38 minutes a game over his last 7 games.  And who can forget Ty Johnson, who ended his last outing against the Gauchos as the bottom flapjack in an Andre Kelly tall stack?  He'll run the point and try to annoy Ajay Mitchell again.  UCD is devestated inside, and UCSB big men should have a field day.  Operative word: should.

Last meeting
Feb. 11: UC Santa Barbara 84, UC Davis 74
SANTA BARBARA, Calif. -- Ajay Mitchell scored 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting to lead the Gauchos (20-4, 11-2) over the Aggies (14-11, 7-6).  Johs Pierre-Louis added 18 points, 7 rebounds and 8 assists for Santa Barbara, which reached 20 wins for the 5th time in Joe Pasternack's six seasons at the school.  UCSB shot 61% from the field.  Elijah Pepper scored 30 points for UC Davis, the 5th straight game in which he has scored at least 28.

UCSB's last game
Feb. 25: UC Santa Barbara 87, UC San Diego 71
LA JOLLA, Calif. -- Miles Norris made his first 8 shots from the field, scoring a season-high 25 points to spark the Gauchos (22-7, 13-5) to the runaway win over the Tritons (10-20, 5-13). Each UCSB starter scored in double digits, with Andre Kelly recording a double double with 11 points and 11 rebounds.  The Gauchos shot 59% from the field and made 10-of-17 (59%) shots from the 3-point line.  Roddie Anderson III scored 21 points and Francis Nwaokorie added 19 for UC San Diego.

UCD's last game
Feb. 25: UC Davis 58, Cal Poly 52
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. -- Elijah Pepper scored 20 points to become the leading single-season scorer in school history and the Aggies (17-12, 10-7) returned from a one-game hiatus to defeat the Mustangs (7-23, 1-17).  Pepper, who has 617 points on the season, made 3 free throws with 59 seconds left to break a 52-52 tie.  Cal Poly has lost 17 straight games and is locked into the 10 seed position for the Big West Tournament.

The Arena
University Credit Union Center
Capacity: 6,003
The Pavilion was renamed in July, 2021 thanks to a 10-year partnership between UC Davis and the credit union.  The arena, originally known as Recreation Hall, opened in 1977.  On Dec. 9, 1995, the basketball floor inside the arena was renamed Hamilton Court, in honor of former men’s basketball coach Bob Hamilton, who passed away just days prior to the ceremonies.  As of a few years ago, his wife was still attending the Big West Tournament as I got a chance to meet her.

UC Davis Roster
Elijah Pepper #40 JR G, 6-4 200, Selah, WA -- 22.0 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 3.4 Ast
Ty Johnson #2 SO G, 6-3 190, Chicago, IL -- 14.6 Pts, 4.5 Reb, 2.3 Ast
Christian Anigwe #4 SR F, 6-9 220, Phoenix, AZ -- 12.0 Pts, 5.8 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Robby Beasley #5 SO G, 6-3 190, San Ranon, CA -- 9.8 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Kane Milling #0 JR G, 6-4 180, Nantes, France -- 7.2 Pts, 4.4 Reb, 1.6 Ast
Leo DeBruhl #10 SO G, 6-2 190, Seattle, WA -- 4.7 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 1.8 Ast
Ade Adebayo #24 JR G, 6-4 200, London, United Kingdom -- 3.8 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Niko Rocak #20 SO F, 6-9 220, Geneva, Switzerland -- 2.1 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Sione Lose #22 FR G, 6-4 170, Sacramento, CA -- 1.1 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Sam Manu #13 JR F, 6-7 210, San Mateo, CA -- 1.6 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.1 Ast
DeAndre Henry #15 JR F, 6-7 225, Phoenix, AZ -- 5.3 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Jac Mani #11 FR F, 6-9 217, Beverly Hills, CA -- 5.0 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Francesco Borra #55 SO F, 6-11 250, Moncalieri, Italy -- 1.2 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Patrick Lambey #23 JR F, 6-5 190, Granite Bay, CA -- 1.3 Pts, 0.3 Reb, 0.3 Ast

UCSB Roster
Ajay Mitchell #13 SO G, 6-4 180, Sainte Marie Namur (Belgium) -- 15.7 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 4.9 Ast
Miles Norris #5 SR F, 6-10 220, San Diego, CA -- 14.1 Pts, 6.3 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Andre Kelly #2 SR F, 6-8 255, Stockton, CA -- 9.5 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Josh Pierre-Louis #1 SR G, 6-4 185, Plainfield, NJ -- 9.5 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 2.3 Ast
Cole Anderson #4 SO G, 6-4 185, Fresno, CA -- 7.1 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Calvin Wishart #10 SR G, 6-1 180, Delano, MN -- 6.7 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 2.9 Ast
Ajare Sanni #3 SR G, 6-3 170, Houston, TX -- 6.5 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Koat Keat Tong #00 FR F, 6-9 215, Bentiu, South Sudan -- 1.9 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Jakov Kukic #14 JR F, 6-10 230, Split, Croatia -- 2.3 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Matija Belic #32 FR G, 6-7 205, Belgrade, Serbia -- 1.1 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Evans Kipruto #12 JR F, 6-8 250, Nairobi, Kenya -- 0.8 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.1 Ast
David Pickles #40 SO F, 6-10 235, Seattle, WA -- 1.5 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Gage Gomez #50 JR G, 6-3 190, Arroyo Grande, CA -- 0.3 Pts, 0.3 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Ariel Bland #23 SO F, 6-7 215, Eden Prairie, MN -- 0.0 Pts, 1.5 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Henry Hartwell #51 FR G, 6-5 180, Oceanside, CA -- 0.0 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Max Sheldon #53 SO G, 5-11 180, Santa Barbara, CA -- 0.0 Pts, 0.0 Reb, 0.0 Ast
 
UC Davis National Ranking Outliers
Team

• Assist/Turnover Ratio: 316 (0.84)
• Bench Points per game: 317 (13.83)
• Fastbreak Points: 14 (14.52)
• Fouls per game: 300 (18.7)
• Free Throw Attempts per game: 5 (24.1)
• Free Throws Made per game: 16 (16.7)
• Rebound Margin: 44 (+4.5)
• Rebounds (Offensive) per game: 38 (11.93)
• Rebounds per game: 69 (36.90)
• Three Point percentage Defense: 323 (.368)
• Turnovers Forced per game: 43 (14.93)
• Turnovers per game: 326 (14.6)

Players

• Elijah Pepper -- Assist/Turnover ratio: 349 (0.98), Assists: 267 (96), Assists per game: 242 (3.4), Double Doubles: 380 (2), Field Goal Attempts: 17 (453), Field Goal percentage: 186 (.457), Field Goals: 30 (207), Free Throw attempts: 35 (175), Free Throw percentage: 186 (.800), Free Throws: 27 (140), Minutes per game: 81 (34:52), Points: 14 (617), Points per game: 8 (22.0), Rebounds (Defensive) per game: 216 (4.71), Rebounds per game: 342 (5.9), Steals: 208 (42), Steals per game: 182 (1.50), Three Point Attempts: 124 (187), Three Pointers per game: 181 (2.25), Three Pointers: 202 (63)
• Christian Anigwe -- Blocks: 83 (39), Blocks per game: 72 (1.44), Double Doubles: 380 (2), Free Throw Attempts: 282 (117), Rebounds (Offensive) per game: 95 (2.59)
• Leo DeBruhl -- Double Doubles: 587 (1)
• Kane Milling -- Double Doubles: 587 (1)
• Robby Beasley -- Double Doubles: 587 (1)
• Ty Johnson -- Free Throw Attempts: 72 (159), Free Throws: 109 (112), Points: 345 (408), Points per game: 292 (14.6), Steals: 92 (50), Steals per game: 82 (1.79)

UCSB National Ranking Outliers
Team

• Bench Points per game: 287 (15.07)
• Effective FG percentage: 39 (.543)
• Field Goal percentage: 10 (.491)
• Rebounds (Offensive) per game: 279 (8.59)
• Rebounds per game: 288 (32.59)
• Scoring Defense: 41 (64.9)
• Three Point Attempts per game: 339 (16.1)
• Three Pointers per game: 328 (5.5)
• Winning percentage: 31 (.759)

Players

• Ajay Mitchell -- Assist/Turnover ratio: 78 (2.12), Assists: 52 (142), Assists per game: 54 (4.9), Double Doubles: 380 (2), Field Goal percentage: 105 (.500), Field Goals: 217 (157), Free Throw attempts: 89 (153), Free Throw percentage: 164 (.810), Free Throws: 65 (124), Minutes per game: 243 (33:07), Points: 201 (456), Points per game: 196 (15.7), Steals: 256 (40), Steals per game: 261 (1.38)
• Miles Norris -- Blocks: 251 (26), Blocks per game: 262 (0.90), Double Doubles: 261 (3), Field Goal percentage: 114 (.495), Field Goals: 321 (147), Minutes per game: 222 (33:19), Points: 345 (408), Points per game: 345 (14.1), Rebounds: 261 (183), Rebounds (Defensive) per game: 276 (4.48), Rebounds per game: 252 (6.3)
• Andre Kelly -- Double Doubles: 113 (6), Rebounds: 273 (181), Rebounds (Defensive) per game: 151 (5.04), Rebounds per game: 231 (6.5)
• Josh Pierre-Louis -- Steals per game: 257 (1.38)

Prediction
Both teams have been degraded by apparent season-ending injuries.  While UCSB appears to have rebounded, each player remaining needs to be play at a high level for them to win.  The Aggies are a tough out, especially at home.  Of course, they're depleted as well, but Pepper makes up for it with his bull-in-a-china-shop play.  Pepper is unstoppable and playing at home...I think he's the x factor in this game.  Prove me wrong, Gauchos!  UC Davis 68, UCSB 66.

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