UCSB vs CSU-SLO Game Preview, by gauchodan

UCSB at Cal Poly
Saturday, January 7, 2022, 1:00 pm PST
San Luis Obispo, Calif.
 
Quick Bite
The Gauchos (11-2, 2-0) come back from a bye in the Big West schedule with a matinee at Blue-Green rival Cal Poly.  UCSB has yet to have a Big West game start at the classic time of 7 pm PST.  UCSB has won 7 straight games, including four away from home.  Looking back on the winning streak, it seems that every game was close until the Gauchos pulled away late.  It doesn't hurt that UCSB has Ajay Mitchell on its side.  Mitchell goes into another gear in the last five minutes and basically says, "no, we are not losing this game."  The reigning conference Player of the Week has scored 20 points in 4 straight games.

The Mustangs (7-8, 1-2) have already matched their win total from last season, although they just lost to lowly CSU Bakersfield.  Cal Poly has some nice pieces.  Alimamy Koroma is a formidable senior forward who is nearing 1,000 career points.  Chance Hunter is a grad transfer who once played at Long Beach State and senior guard Trevon Taylor is a frequent double-digit scorer and the team's leading rebounder.  The Mustangs allow just 63.3 points per game.

UCSB-Cal Poly History
UCSB leads the series 79-35.
The most frequent opponent in Cal Poly's program history, UCSB has won 9 straight against the Mustangs and 16 of the last 17 matchups.  Cal Poly's last victory against the Gauchos was an 80-79 home decision (Jan. 4, 2018) in which the Mustangs overturned a 21-point, first-half deficit . UCSB leads the Division I (45-14) series.

The Arena
Mott Athletics Center
Capacity: 3,032
Mott is one of the older facilities in the conference, but it's a fun place to watch a basketball game.  It has seating on both sides and at each end and can be one of the louder buildings on the West Coast.  The gym was named after Robert A. Mott (at the time referred to as "Mott Gym") on September 24, 1988.  Mott had been a physical education faculty member and department head at Cal Poly between 1946-1978.

Head Coach
John Smith
overall/Cal Poly: 31-78 (.284)
Smith is in his 4th season as head coach at Poly.  He can be considered part of the Bob Williams coaching tree, as he was an assistant for 6 seasons under Dedrique Taylor at Cal State Fullerton.  He briefly played for Jerry Tarkanian at UNLV and later won a California state championship at Riverside City CC, just like Tarkanian did 43 seasons prior.

Cal Poly Roster
Alimamy Koroma #15 SR F, 6-8 220, Freetown, Sierra Leone -- 11.3 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Trevon Taylor #2 SR G, 6-6 197, Chesapeake, VA -- 9.9 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Chance Hunter #31 SR G, 6-6 190, Inglewood, CA -- 8.4 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Brantly Stevenson #4 JR F, 6-4 185, Rancho Cucamonga, CA -- 8.1 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 1.4 Ast
Kobe Sanders #3 JR G, 6-6 175, San Diego, CA -- 7.3 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 1.5 Ast
Nick Fleming #12 SR G, 6-1 165, Atlanta, GA -- 4.4 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.1 Ast
Camren Pierce #1 JR G, 5-10 175, Rancho Cucamonga, CA -- 4.7 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 2.3 Ast
Bryan Penn-Johnson #23 JR C, 7-0 260, Long Beach, CA -- 3.2 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 0.1 Ast
Aidan Prukop #11 SO G, 6-4 180, Ladera Ranch, CA -- 2.8 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Julien Franklin #5 SO G, 6-7 200, Brea, CA -- 2.3 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Cole Haller #21 FR F, 6-7 185, Bellevue, WA -- 1.4 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Isaac Spears #10 FR G, 6-4 170, Las Vegas, NV -- 3.3 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Hayden Jory #0 SO G, 5-11 170, Lompoc, CA -- 1.0 Pts, 1.5 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Aaron Price #22 FR F, 6-8 195, Las Vegas, NV -- 1.7 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Nick Carlson #13 JR G, 6-0 155, La Mesa, CA -- 0.5 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Matur Dhal #35 SO C, 6-11 195, Tempe, AZ -- 2.0 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 0.0 Astt

UCSB Roster
Ajay Mitchell #13 SO G, 6-4 180, Sainte Marie Namur (Belgium) -- 16.6 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 4.6 Ast
Miles Norris #5 SR F, 6-10 220, San Diego, CA -- 12.7 Pts, 6.4 Reb, 1.6 Ast
Josh Pierre-Louis #1 SR G, 6-4 185, Plainfield, NJ -- 10.5 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 2.5 Ast
Andre Kelly #2 SR F, 6-8 255, Stockton, CA -- 9.0 Pts, 6.9 Reb, 1.1 Ast
Calvin Wishart #10 SR G, 6-1 180, Delano, MN -- 7.2 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 2.8 Ast
Ajare Sanni #3 SR G, 6-3 170, Houston, TX -- 7.2 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Cole Anderson #4 SO G, 6-4 185, Fresno, CA -- 6.5 Pts, 1.5 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Jakov Kukic #14 JR F, 6-10 230, Split, Croatia -- 1.8 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.1 Ast
Koat Keat Tong #00 FR F, 6-9 215, Bentiu, South Sudan -- 1.2 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Matija Belic #32 FR G, 6-7 205, Belgrade, Serbia -- 0.5 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 0.1 Ast
Evans Kipruto #12 JR F, 6-8 250, Nairobi, Kenya -- 1.0 Pts, 1.3 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Gage Gomez #50 JR G, 6-3 190, Arroyo Grande, CA -- 0.7 Pts, 0.0 Reb, 0.7 Ast
David Pickles #40 SO F, 6-10 235, Seattle, WA -- 1.0 Pts, 1.0 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Ariel Bland #23 SO F, 6-7 215, Eden Prairie, MN -- 0.0 Pts, 1.5 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Henry Hartwell #51 FR G, 6-5 180, Oceanside, CA -- 0.0 Pts, 0.5 Reb, 0.0 Ast
Max Sheldon #53 SO G, 5-11 180, Santa Barbara, CA -- 0.0 Pts, 0.0 Reb, 0.0 Ast
 
Cal Poly National Ranking Outliers
Team
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 344 (0.66)
Assists per game: 348 (9.2)
Blocks per game: 305 (2.2)
Effective FG pct: 311 (.471)
Fastbreak Points: 300 (6.87)
Field Goal pct: 295 (.419)
Fouls per game: 313 (19.1)
Free Throw pct: 36 (.754)
Scoring Defense: 49 (63.3)
Scoring Offense: 341 (61.8)
Three-Point pct: 333 (.288)
Three Pointers per game: 323 (5.5)

UCSB National Ranking Outliers
Team
Field Goal pct: 35 (.483)
Rebound Margin: 29 (+6.5)
Scoring Defense: 56 (63.8)
Three Point attempts per game: 339 (16.3)
Three Pointers per game: 322 (5.5)
Winning percentage: 21 (.846)
Players
Ajay Mitchell -- Assists per game: 77 (4.6), Free Throw pct: 81 (.853), Free Throws: 96 (58), Steals per Game: 62 (2.00)

Prediction
Wow, Cal Poly's statistically bad at a lot of stuff.  And we finally found a team that makes as many 3's as we do per game.  They will take them, however.  They tried 30 of them last night in Bakersfield, making just 6.  Cal Poly may rank well in scoring defense at 63.3 ppg allowed but that may be a function of their slow pace (KPom tempo ranking = 321).  Just don't put them on the free throw line.  The Gauchos average scoring 66.6 points on the road vs. 81.3 points at home and are not the fastest team either (KPom tempo = 281), so they may need a patented Ajay final 5 surge to put this game away.  UCSB 65, Cal Poly 53

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